Harsh repression of the Rohingya continues as Burma’s political reforms are celebrated, reports Steve Shaw. A less controversial approach, and therefore one more widely used in foreign policy, is to pursue the route of economic sanctions. The plain fact is that the United States doesn’t have much leverage here. It rests on the principle that if a state is failing to protect its own citizens, it is the international community’s duty to step up to the job. Myanmar has been facing increasingly deadly protests following the 1 February coup by its armed forces, the Tatmadaw, which saw many of the country's civilian leaders, including State Councillor Aung San Suu Kyi and President Win Myint, detained. On 1 April, the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw –- made up of exiled pro-democracy National League for Democracy (NLD, the ruling party before the coup) – announced an interim constitution outlining plans to form a new federal democratic union, a mission which seeks to consolidate various ethnic groups' desires as well as promote wider demands for the reinstatement of a democratic government bolstered by the NLD party. The U.S. has also placed a number of Myanmar generals and military-owned firms –- including Myanma Economic Holdings Public Company Ltd. and Myanmar Economic Corporation Ltd. –- on a U.S. Treasury list prohibiting any US citizen or company from engaging in business with them. 'The British government is promoting its own interests in Burma’. Turning a dictatorship into a democracy is a massive and highly contingent project of social engineering that invariably produces unintended consequences and rarely proceeds as expected. China understands America's weakness. Sophie Cousins reports on different approaches to tackling Burma’s drug addiction crisis. But there is no return to the old power sharing with the NLD. Some specific sanctions were then re-imposed in 2018 following the escalation of military violence and genocide in Rakhine state, targeting several high-ranking Myanmar army officials including Tatmadaw chief, General Min Aung Hlaing. The state is now using strong-arm tactics against even the Tatmadaw soldiers – traumatized by the level of violence, and who want to defect or join the CDM – by threatening the safety of their families. But, with China serving as the largest supplier of arms to the Tatmadaw, and Russia recently announcing its desire to strengthen military ties with Myanmar, it is highly unlikely that any effective arms embargo on a global scale will materialize. Sold to the sea: trafficking in the Thai fishing industry. Today over 80 per cent of Burma’s people are Buddhist and the country has the largest number of monks as a percentage of the... Two survivors from Karen state, where the Burmese military has been laying villages to waste, tell their stories. Because MOGE is now under the military’s control, these companies’ payments are effectively bankrolling the Tatmadaw’s operations. Britain has provided support to the Burmese military, writes Steve Shaw. David Hutt explores whether this should be the case... Will Aung San Suu Kyi represent all Burma? Cutting that aid won’t affect the generals at all. With the slogan ‘How many dead bodies?’ scrawled on banners and hashtagged on social media and countless images providing the harrowing evidence, discouraged protestors and onlookers alike are right to ask: why isn’t the international community doing more to help? Iqbal Hossein photographs Rohingya refugees, and hears their harrowing experiences. Can the world handle another Rohingya crisis? As Myanmar’s military takeover enters its second month, ASEAN member states appear unwilling to intervene in support of the country’s now-ousted democratic government. of third party cookies. It is only a test if the administration chooses to make it so. More recently, President Obama welcomed Myanmar president Thein Sein to the United States. China has a long history of turning a blind eye to human rights violations in Myanmar, most recently by its indifference towards the Rohingya genocide. In a blow to the groups that have governed since democratization, voters chose independent candidates and alternative coalitions to draft a new constitution. The international community must have a more constructive vision. Even with its stated emphasis on democracy and human rights in guiding foreign policy choices, the calculus for the Biden administration would be complex. Woon said any such intervention by Asean – called for by Myanmar citizens protesting the coup – was also out of the question as “we do not have the military ability or the economic ability”. The UN, the United States and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation have issued standard condemnations and Muslim-majority Indonesia has been the most active, sending their foreign minister for urgent talks with Myanmar. Along with Russia’s indifference towards the genocide, this meant that the UNSC did not refer the Rohingya case directly to the ICC. Like hell. The coup has spawned a new generation of protestors and activists, who refuse to sink back into the political darkness their parents endured, and are willing to risk their lives in the name of democracy. Invest in journalism with integrity and heart. U.S. engagement played a critical role in lending momentum to political reform in the country. R2P is a principle that all UN member states adopted at the 2005 World Summit to ensure that the international community would never fail to protect people against mass atrocity crimes such as war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide. Join us as a co-owner today. Since the military coup in Myanmar, the situation continues to worsen. In addition to human rights, communal tensions, … Daily protests have been ongoing for a month and a half in towns and cities across Myanmar after the military seized control of the Southeast Asian country in a coup on February 1. Most countries lifted their long-standing sanctions against Myanmar in 2012, when the country first opened up to foreign investment and embarked on its democratic transition after almost 50 years under military dictatorship. With ethnic violence displacing hundreds of thousands, a resolution can’t come too soon, says Iris Gonzales. It has had a long history among elite and popular opinion in the United States. The coup is far from a salutary development, but the military’s decision to reject the landslide victory by the National League for Democracy in the November 2020 elections and to detain members of the civilian government—including nominal leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who has now been charged with some comically obscure violations—does not impinge on vital U.S. interests or require dramatic action. Among Rangoon’s six million souls, a few have secret conversations with *Dinyar Godrej*. Some observers believe the changes that have taken place within Myanmar during the past decade may lead to a new wave of popular protests and force the release of detained civilian officials (including Aung San Suu Kyi) and an acceptance of the National League for Democracy’s electoral victory. Is the West complicit in the Rohingya crisis? It must be understood that the Tatmadaw is a deeply nationalistic, and deeply religious institution, which considers itself to be the guardian of the nation. Ttatmadaw’s poor track record of heeding their own ceasefire agreements casts enormous doubt on the sincerity of their ‘promise’. This article was funded by the Polden-Puckham Charitable Foundation. Furthermore, despite the Tatmadaw extending a month-long unilateral ‘ceasefire’ to ethnic armed groups on 1 April 2021, armed clashes have continued across the country. They cannot promise accountability or any form of “intervention”. Odds are, however, that the administration would turn to … Democracy is within sight, Iris Gonzales is told, as she meets those who have reason to hope. Burma must address its ‘Rohingya problem’. Tina Burrett and Christopher Simons report. Although the EU has had an embargo on arms sales to Myanmar since the early 1990’s, there is now an urgent need for an extensive global agreement. It isn’t necessarily concerned with who controls the country –- or how, for that matter –- as long as the governing power can provide territorial, political and economic security for investment; foreign military intervention could run the risk of further chaos. Civilians have endured a protracted history of merciless violence at the hands of the Tatmadaw (Myanmar armed forces), whether it be decades of conflict and oppression in remote ethnic regions or the bloodthirsty repression of political dissent in towns and cities. More info in our privacy policy. Somalia’s president says entrenched elites are blocking the path toward universal suffrage and insisting on an indirect electoral system that maintains their power. Don’t expect the United States to step in and resolve what is increasingly being described as an ethnic cleansing campaign against Myanmar’s Rohingya Muslims. Myanmar’s ethnic Chinese population have not yet come under threat but anti-Chinese sentiment among protestors does make that a distinct possibility. Would the Tatmadaw heed foreign condemnation? Rohingya. China would be the primary political obstruction to any UNSC resolution calling for heavy-handed intervention in Myanmar. Soldiers believe it is their duty to uphold the Buddhist religion and to maintain national unity and sovereignty at all costs; if not, they predict the country would collapse into ruin. The U.S. under Obama eased its sanctions in 2012, and the following year the EU lifted theirs –; a decision that was criticized by human rights activists as being both premature and regrettable. Happy Thingyan Water Festival for Rohingyas? Most analysts are calling for a UN Security Council (UNSC) resolution outlining a multilateral approach, which would initiate concerted international action. If nothing else, the latest military takeover there confirms a point I made a few weeks ago: Foreign policy is a realm of constant surprises, and no global leader can anticipate everything that might occur on their watch. It’s been two months since the military State Administrative Council seized power in Myanmar, and the death toll of anti-coup protesters has now surged past 700. THE PERFECT FAILURE. A human rights group is calling on China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) to work together to get the UN Security Council to intervene in Myanmar, also known as Burma. As it attempts to regain control over the State's institutions now being manned by the military, this level of organization, coordination and determination in resistance efforts, may prove to be far stronger than the Tatmadaw generals had anticipated. Military intervention in Myanmar under the R2P would therefore be not only hazardous in practical terms, but also extremely unlikely politically. A coup in Myanmar has left the military in control under a one-year state of emergency, while the country's de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi and other senior politicians have been detained. One Western aid worker is frustrated and sickened by what’s going on in Burma. Why the UN failed to save the Rohingya. For more on the UN’s approach to Myanmar, and whether it might shift, see my new World Politics Review article. Although economic sanctions must aim to be both comprehensive and thorough in blocking financial channels to the military regime, it is important that they nevertheless remain targeted. Caitlin Wake and Tania Cheung highlight the plight of Rohingya refugees struggling to survive. The Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) continues to grow, with further support coming from the Milk Tea Alliance, a network of online activists from Thailand, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Myanmar. Let us forget for a moment the puerile fantasy that there will be a Western-led military and humanitarian intervention in Myanmar, backed by a United Nations mandate. But cash continues to flow. I have no idea if such hopes are correct, and anticipating mass upheavals is a chancy business at best. Indeed, Myanmar has been a prime target of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, although its efforts there have not gone as smoothly as Beijing officials hoped. In Karen state in the southeast of the country, more than 24,000 people have been displaced, and at least 20 killed, as a result of military airstrikes since the coup. Non-interventionism is the diplomatic policy whereby a nation seeks to avoid alliances with other nations in order to avoid being drawn into wars not related to direct territorial self-defense. If they do occur, however, U.S. diplomacy should focus on discouraging a violent crackdown and giving the junta a face-saving way to reverse course. Media attention has focused on the plight of Rohingya refugees, but their background story is repeatedly ignored, says Neda... Burma’s ‘transition’ leaves women's rights behind. In the near term, therefore, the Biden administration’s response is unlikely to have much impact on the calculations of the Tatmadaw (Myanmar’s military junta) or the reactions of the broader population. In November 2012, prior to President Obama’s visit to Myanmar, U.S. People have been calling for such action in line with the global Responsibility to Protect or R2P. Military intervention in Myanmar under the R2P would therefore be not only hazardous in practical terms, but also extremely unlikely politically. Although China has an extensive economic role in Myanmar and has helped mediate conflicts with several rebel groups there in the past, its relations with Myanmar’s leaders (including the military junta) have frequently been strained. Myanmar makes $1 billion per year from the sale of natural gas, and despite the coup, oil and gas giants Chevron and Total continue to make significant revenue payments to the state-owned Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE). Nor is it clear that a lot of other countries will go along. Colin Boyd Shafer documents a community’s resilience in the face of adversity. ‘This is just the beginning of Burma’s new beginning’. David Baulk looks at sexual violence and development in Burma’s ethnic communities. The political relationship between the United States and Myanmar worsened after the 1988 military coup and violent suppression of pro-democracy demonstrations. “There will not be ASEAN-led military intervention in Myanmar, let’s be clear,” she said. It is free to read online – please support us so we can keep it that way. On this date 74 years ago, the US dropped the first of two atomic bombs on the Japanese city of Hiroshima, killing more than 70,000 people instantly. Firstly, punitive measures, such as sanctions should be taken against the government of Myanmar … R2P can include the use of economic sanctions, arms embargoes, international criminal prosecution or, as a last resort, military intervention. But U.S.-Myanmar relations have appeared somewhat stalled in Obama’s second term. Myanmar’s military, which detained members of the country’s elected government and staged a coup on February 1, did not respond to a Reuters request for comment. Got it. Because China is more deeply engaged in Myanmar and—surprise!—not nearly as upset by the coup itself, the impact of any sanctions the United States might impose on its own will be limited. Andy Hickman meets a group from Burma. For this reason, there is growing skepticism about the value the military junta actually places on international recognition. Why is there so much animosity toward the Rohingya? In Myanmar, ASEAN is not seen as reliable champions of human rights or democracy. China has invested billions of dollars to develop the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, a combination of rail and port developments designed to bypass chokepoints like the Strait of Malacca and give Beijing easy access to the Indian Ocean. Another tool in the international community’s belt is the threat of international criminal prosecution. Yali Banton-Heath is a freelance writer with an MA in Human Rights Law and a specific interest in human rights issues in Myanmar. And the good news here is that events in Myanmar do not require much in the way of a U.S. response. Is a Western approach the best way to engage with the mental health issues of other cultures? In 2014 and 2015 Myanmar was ranked first in the Early Warning Project’s list of countries facing a high risk of genocide, yet this initiated no action. The recent post-coup wave of internet shutdowns and disruptions is an unsettling escalation of a global problem, writes Michael... Aung San Suu Kyi’s spectacular fall from human rights icon to genocide denier. Here’s a look at what could be behind the military’s actions. Now consider that only three have been legally recognised – and led to trials – under the convention: Rwanda in 1994, Bosnia (and the 1995 Srebrenica massacre), and Cambodiaunder the 1975-9 Pol Pot regime. Zoya Phan talks to Jack Gilbert on the Burma-Britain relationship. They may be forced to concede that ruling a country through fear and bloodshed just isn’t an option anymore. India is looking at the world’s largest statelessness crisis. Ultimately, however, US military intervention in Myanmar could owe nothing to moral outrage and everything to a hard-headed assessment of American national interest. The Committee announced last week that they have declared a new 'unity government', comprised of old NLD lawmakers, members of ethnic groups and anti-coup figures. America can do nothing but make some threats and sanctions. Links between Tatmadaw and Thai military (not to mention other ASEAN members) are troubling. Psaki did not specify what types of action the United States may take if Myanmar’s military does not heed its warnings. Myanmar. In their zeal to see dictators fall and liberal values spread, advocates routinely forget that creating new political orders is never easy and that old networks, ties, institutions, and values usually linger and frequently come back to life under the new regime. Perhaps the United States moved too quickly—but it should consider making clear to Myanmar’s leadership that this move is not irreversible. But use of "Myanmar" has become increasingly common, and in 2016 Ms Suu Kyi said it did not matter which name was used. Invest in New Internationalist, become a co-owner and help, Generals have already ignored the condemnations by foreign heads of state and calls for an end to the violence have only been followed by further attacks, Although economic sanctions must aim to block financial channels to the military regime, it is important that they remain targeted. Cases can often take years to reach a verdict, meaning justice through the courts invariably arrives too late to prevent heinous crimes and loss of life. In 2012, after Myanmar’s first free election in over 20 years, Obama restored diplomatic relations and sealed the new relationship with a personal visit; in 2016, he dropped most remaining U.S. sanctions. In response to China’s rise, New Delhi casts off anti-Western baggage. Nick Harvey visits Burmese... Burma: ‘the people aren’t scared anymore’. The country’s democratic changes have yet to reach its ethnic minorities. Myanmar has long denied carrying out genocide and says it is carrying out its own investigations into the events of 2017. Due to Beijing’s particular strategic economic interest in Myanmar and the country’s geographical significance for the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s primary concern, above all else, is regional stability. This is not an argument for abandoning prudent and restrained efforts to convince other countries of democracy’s virtues. The US has also imposed sanctions on Myanmar. Over the longer term, however, the United States (and possibly some other powers) do have one obvious source of influence. Brennan O'Connor meets the activists who are challenging a violent Buddhist minority intent on persecuting Muslims. Pride and optimism – change is in the air, says William Lloyd George on the eve of by-elections in Rangoon. Alas, the ICC has been relatively unsuccessful in bringing about retrospective punitive justice, with a total of just four convictions since the court was established in 2002. Generals have already ignored the condemnations by foreign heads of State, and calls for an end to the violence have only been followed by further attacks, increased repression, and even more deaths. Stop buying Lonely Planet books until BBC withdraws Burma edition. “[But] there will hopefully be talks behind the scenes, military-to-military between selected states that are open to getting their military representatives to reach out to Myanmar’s military representatives.” As is the case in many modern conflicts, the current unrest in Myanmar can trace its roots to the country’s colonial past. The US have very little economic interest in Myanmar and have very little leverage in Myanmar politics. Religious and ethnic minorities expect the new government to restore their rights. 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